‘Wetter than average conditions’ is the 2-second version of what we can expect over the next three months, according to the Bureau of Meteorology’s 2020 Winter Outlook.
The 10-second version…
- Winter is likely to be wetter than average across most of the state, with the exception of the southwest of the state where there is no strong push towards wetter or drier than average conditions.
- Daytime temperatures are likely to be cooler than average across most of the state, but warmer than average in parts of the north.
- Overnight temperatures are likely to be warmer than average for the entire state.
The 60-second version…
The Bureau’s manager of long-range forecasting, Dr Andrew Watkins, said there were only a few areas across the country that weren’t, including WA’s southwest.
“Most areas of mainland Australia are showing a better than 70 per cent chance of having a wetter than average winter,” Dr Watkins said.
“The only exceptions are the coastal fringes of NSW and eastern Victoria, parts of Tasmania and areas of southwest WA where the outlook isn’t pushing towards wetter or drier than average conditions.
Dr Watkins said the outlook was being largely driven by warmer than average ocean temperatures off north west WA, as well as warm ocean temperatures in the western Pacific.
“Ocean temperatures in the eastern Indian Ocean are currently warmer than normal, and our models are predicting they will warm further throughout the winter months.
“When warm sea surface temperatures occur closer to Australia, weather patterns shift towards us too, favouring more cloud and rainfall across the country.”
Daytime temperatures throughout the winter months are expected to be cooler than average for much of the southern half of the country, but warmer than average along the eastern seaboard and most of northern Australia.
Overnight temperatures are likely to be warmer than average across the entire country.
“When we look at the expected temperatures, they really fall in line with the expected rainfall conditions.
“Areas with a higher chance of above average rainfall are also looking at increased chances of cooler than average days because they are more likely to have cloud cover and more evaporative cooling in the coming months.
“Conversely, it means our nights are more likely to be warmer than average, because that cloud cover will prevent heat from escaping during the evenings.”